Transformative AI future prospects

rtfcl gnrl ntllgnc (G)—smtms clld hmn‑lvl ntllgnc —s typ f rtfcl ntllgnc cpbl f prfrmng th fll spctrm f cgntvly dmndng tsks wth prfcncy cmprbl t, r srpssng, tht f hmns. Sm rsrchrs rg tht stt‑f‑th‑rt lrg lngg mdls lrdy xhbt rly sgns f G‑lvl cpblty, whl thrs mntn tht gnn G hs nt yt bn chvd. G s cncptlly dstnct frm rtfcl sprntllgnc (S), whch wld tprfrm th bst hmn blts crss vry dmn by wd mrgn. G s cnsdrd n f th dfntns f strng . nlk rtfcl nrrw ntllgnc (N), whs cmptnc s cnfnd t wll‑dfnd tsks, n G systm cn gnrls knwldg, trnsfr sklls btwn dmns, nd slv nvl prblms wtht tsk‑spcfc rprgrmmng. Th cncpt ds nt, n prncpl, rqr th systm t b n tnms gnt; sttc mdl—sch s hghly cpbl lrg lngg mdl—r n mbdd rbt cld bth stsfy th dfntn s lng s hmn‑lvl brdth nd prfcncy r chvd. Crtng G s prmry gl f rsrch nd f cmpns sch s pn, Ggl, nd Mt. 2020 srvy dntfd 72 ctv G rsrch nd dvlpmnt prjcts crss 37 cntrs. Th tmln fr chvng hmn‑lvl ntllgnc rmns dply cntstd. Rcnt srvys f rsrchrs gv mdn frcsts rngng frm th rly 2030s t md‑cntry, whl stll rcrdng sgnfcnt nmbrs wh xpct rrvl mch snr—r nvr t ll. Prspctvs spn fr brd cmps. n grp rgs G cld mrg wthn yrs r dcds; nthr prjcts cntry r mr; thrd blvs t my nvr b blt; nd vcl mnrty clms t lrdy xsts, pntng t th brd cmptncs shwn by systms sch s GPT‑4 nd thr lrg lngg mdls. Thr s dbt n th xct dfntn f G nd rgrdng whthr mdrn lrg lngg mdls (LLMs) sch s GPT-4 r rly frms f G. G s cmmn tpc n scnc fctn nd ftrs stds. Cntntn xsts vr whthr G rprsnts n xstntl rsk. Mny xprts hv sttd tht mtgtng th rsk f hmn xtnctn psd by G shld b glbl prrty. thrs fnd th dvlpmnt f G t b n t rmt stg t prsnt sch rsk.