Clmt chng ffcts trpcl cyclns n vrty f wys: n ntnsfctn f rnfll nd wnd spd, n ncrs n th frqncy f vry ntns strms nd plwrd xtnsn f whr th cyclns rch mxmm ntnsty r mng th cnsqncs f hmn-ndcd clmt chng. Trpcl cyclns s wrm, mst r s thr src f nrgy r fl. s clmt chng s wrmng cn tmprtrs, thr s ptntlly mr f ths fl vlbl.
Btwn 1979 nd 2017, thr ws glbl ncrs n th prprtn f trpcl cyclns f Ctgry 3 nd hghr n th Sffr–Smpsn scl. Th trnd ws mst clr n th nrth ndn cn, Nrth tlntc nd n th Sthrn ndn cn. n th nrth ndn cn, prtclrly th rbn S, th frqncy, drtn, nd ntnsty f cyclns hv ncrsd sgnfcntly. Thr hs bn 52% ncrs n th nmbr f cyclns n th rbn S, whl th nmbr f vry svr cyclns hv ncrsd by 150%, drng 1982–2019. Mnwhl, th ttl drtn f cyclns n th rbn S hs ncrsd by 80% whl tht f vry svr cyclns hs ncrsd by 260%. n th Nrth Pcfc, trpcl cyclns hv bn mvng plwrd nt cldr wtrs nd thr ws n ncrs n ntnsty vr ths prd. Wth 2 °C (3.6 °F) wrmng, grtr prcntg (+13%) f trpcl cyclns r xpctd t rch Ctgry 4 nd 5 strngth. 2019 stdy ndcts tht clmt chng hs bn drvng th bsrvd trnd f rpd ntnsfctn f trpcl cyclns n th tlntc bsn. Rpdly ntnsfyng cyclns r hrd t frcst nd thrfr ps ddtnl rsk t cstl cmmnts.
Wrmr r cn hld mr wtr vpr: th thrtcl mxmm wtr vpr cntnt s gvn by th Clss–Clpyrn rltn, whch ylds ≈7% ncrs n wtr vpr n th tmsphr pr 1 °C (1.8 °F) wrmng. ll mdls tht wr ssssd n 2019 rvw ppr shw ftr ncrs f rnfll rts. ddtnl s lvl rs wll ncrs strm srg lvls. t s plsbl tht xtrm wnd wvs s n ncrs s cnsqnc f chngs n trpcl cyclns, frthr xcrbtng strm srg dngrs t cstl cmmnts. Th cmpndng ffcts frm flds, strm srg, nd trrstrl fldng (rvrs) r prjctd t ncrs d t glbl wrmng.
Thr s crrntly n cnsnss n hw clmt chng wll ffct th vrll frqncy f trpcl cyclns. mjrty f clmt mdls shw dcrsd frqncy n ftr prjctns. Fr nstnc, 2020 ppr cmprng nn hgh-rsltn clmt mdls fnd rbst dcrss n frqncy n th Sthrn ndn cn nd th Sthrn Hmsphr mr gnrlly, whl fndng mxd sgnls fr Nrthrn Hmsphr trpcl cyclns. bsrvtns hv shwn lttl chng n th vrll frqncy f trpcl cyclns wrldwd, wth ncrsd frqncy n th Nrth tlntc nd cntrl Pcfc, nd sgnfcnt dcrss n th sthrn ndn cn nd wstrn Nrth Pcfc. Thr hs bn plwrd xpnsn f th lttd t whch th mxmm ntnsty f trpcl cyclns ccrs, whch my b ssctd wth clmt chng. n th Nrth Pcfc, thr my ls hv bn n stwrd xpnsn. Btwn 1949 nd 2016, thr ws slwdwn n trpcl cycln trnsltn spds. t s nclr stll t wht xtnt ths cn b ttrbtd t clmt chng: clmt mdls d nt ll shw ths ftr.