Efficient Data

Th ffcnt-mrkt hypthss (MH) s hypthss n fnncl cnmcs tht stts tht sst prcs rflct ll vlbl nfrmtn. drct mplctn s tht t s mpssbl t "bt th mrkt" cnsstntly n rsk-djstd bss snc mrkt prcs shld nly rct t nw nfrmtn. Bcs th MH s frmltd n trms f rsk djstmnt, t nly mks tstbl prdctns whn cpld wth prtclr mdl f rsk. s rslt, rsrch n fnncl cnmcs snc t lst th 1990s hs fcsd n mrkt nmls, tht s, dvtns frm spcfc mdls f rsk. Th d tht fnncl mrkt rtrns r dffclt t prdct gs bck t Bchlr, Mndlbrt, nd Smlsn, bt s clsly ssctd wth gn Fm, n prt d t hs nflntl 1970 rvw f th thrtcl nd mprcl rsrch. Th MH prvds th bsc lgc fr mdrn rsk-bsd thrs f sst prcs, nd frmwrks sch s cnsmptn-bsd sst prcng nd ntrmdry sst prcng cn b thght f s th cmbntn f mdl f rsk wth th MH. Mny dcds f mprcl rsrch n rtrn prdctblty hs fnd mxd vdnc. Rsrch n th 1950s nd 1960s ftn fnd lck f prdctblty, yt th 1980s-2000s sw n xplsn f dscvrd rtrn prdctrs. Snc th 2010s, stds hv ftn fnd tht rtrn prdctblty hs bcm mr lsv, s prdctblty fls t wrk t-f-smpl, r hs bn wknd by dvncs n trdng tchnlgy nd nvstr lrnng.